TripAdvisor lookers looking away from Pensacola, toward Florida east coast

It’s hardly surprising, but the data are in regarding precisely how the Deepwater Horizon-BP oil spill has impacted TripAdvisor page views — and presumably travelers’ vacation plans.

The U.S. Travel Association commissioned an Oxford Economics study,  Potential Impact of the Gulf Oil Spill on Tourism,  which found that “the potential impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill could cost U.S. coastal economies $22.7 billion over a period of three years.”

As part of the study, Oxford Economics looked at two TripAdvisor charts depicting page-view numbers in the affected region.

The oil spill began April 20 and the first chart below “shows the percentage drop in the share of TripAdvisor U.S. page views for various destinations for the 20 days leading up to May 20 and to July 18 compared to the same 20-day period one year earlier,” the study says. “The effect of the oil spill on interest in the region is striking and in most cases has only increased over time.”

So, in the 20 days leading up to July 18, represented by the orange line, page views for destinations in Gulf Shores, Ala., Pensacola and Destin, Fla., for example, continue to nosedive while page views to Daytona Beach and West Palm Beach, Fla., two areas unaffected by the spill, increased compared with the same period a year earlier.

“This decline in searches represents a leading indicator of booking as fewer travelers are planning trips to the region,” the study says. “Consumers searched 52 percent less for Pensacola, Fla. in July, 65 percent less for Gulf Shores, Ala., and 48 percent less for Destin, Fla.”

And, here’s another TripAdvisor view showing the destinations’ percentage change in share of U.S. page views.

The Oxford Economics study points out that the above TripAdvisor data show that the spill’s effects are adversely impacting destinations untouched by tarballs or oil sheen.

“For example,” the study says, “the Outer Banks has been consistently negative [for oil] since the crisis began, as has much of the Florida Gulf coast, even though oil has only been spotted in the state’s panhandle region. Also, it is noteworthy that the east coast of Florida has experienced increases in interest, possibly as an alternate destination.”

The U.S. Travel Association proposed to the Obama administration that BP contribute a $500 million marketing fund “to share accurate information on the oil spill and attract visitors to the region.”

The Oxford Economics study estimated that such a marketing fund could reduce the impact to area economies by about one-third, or $7.5 billion.

With page views down for the region as a whole, it’s possible Expedia Inc., which owns TripAdvisor, could provide more information on the oil spill’s economic impact on travel booking and advertising revenue when it releases its second quarter financial results July 29.