Technology never disappoints in its progression – but it often cause issues when we actually try and use the stuff!
One example is how increases in bandwidth on both fixed line and mobile data networks are transforming commerce.
This is big data and big opportunities – but only with non-legacy thinking. And travel needs to understand the reality of the real-time web and how high bandwidth is not business as usual.
Google is making a number of strategic plays, for example – almost a year ago it announced (with Verizon) a restricted, high speed version of the web for premium services.
Now it is moving further into our lives with the acquisition of Motorola’s handset business. Furthermore, Dish Networks in the US bought a number of terrestrial and satellite assets which will bring it also into the game of providers of big data services, allied to consumer brands such as its purchase of Blockbuster.
We can surmise that big data delivery via these high bandwidth networks is going to have a profound impact on travel, perhaps more than many other business sectors.
The reason is that travel depends on a significant amount of data and processing to deliver products and services.
Travel is very complex, something that many newcomers find hard to comprehend. This complexity requires a significant amount of horsepower that is better served via central location services or today by the cloud.
Recent developments in online travel have largely focused on the changes in the consumer interface.
In reality, although people talk about Travel 2.0 and even Travel 3.0, we are still dealing with Travel 1.0, which was and is all about access to (and for) the consumer. The ability to move large amounts of data, and the ability to process data in the cloud, will change the game significantly, not just consumer user experience, but also in the back where the real magic happens.
Here are some predictions for what we might see over the course of the next few years:
- Greater bandwidth will create new implementations of existing products and service to the consumer, as well as brand new products
- Search will finally get the real attention it deserves and become real. Metasearch will become “real search”.
- Trusted sources will emerge for quality data. The current so-called gatekeepers of data will lose their privileged control of data sources, perhaps replaced by new gatekeepers (and Google fully intends being the biggest).
- Entrepreneurs will develop a whole new market of services that are not dependent on the traditional restrictions, and will be largely cloud based.
- Suppliers will build better controls on their products ensuring they know where and to whom their products are delivered.
- Intermediaries will decline in number, but those who remain will be more valued.
- Big Media and Big Telecom will enter travel (again). Google buying Motorola is an example.
- Travel will become more implicit and automated for mechanical trip buying (eg. corporate travel). The user will not have to work so hard.
- Location-based services and augmented reality technologies will blur and become integrated into travel apps.
- Regulatory control will be tightened in travel as taxing the travel process will become more prevalent.
While many of these predictions are largely not new, the creaking infrastructure at the back of travel cannot keep up with these changes.
Moving travel applications to the cloud, along with the increased use of apps for the front end to the consumer, pushes the current process of concentrated processors of data to the limit, and beyond. The gatekeepers may well find themselves outclassed here.
While it is sexy to think about the front-end piece, the back-end is the hardest part. Much harder. Â As an industry we have to rethink our future, including the roles of the existing players.
Success will come to those who understand and build a trusted and reliable set of services for the consumer. This applies to both direct to consumer businesses and those who power services for the consumer.
While big aggregation services will continue to play a role, there is a clear place for the smaller service providers to create better and more meaningful applications for the consumer.
Structured workflows that have existed for more than 15 years are “unnatural acts” that force the user into behaviours that actually do little to provide a better service to the consumer.
These will likely die out and be replaced with more natural search, and better quality of service.
A note of caution is required here. These new capabilities require a radical change in thinking. Legacy processes and methodologies have no place in this future.
Those who own the supply and those who add value to the consumer as intermediaries will now have to work harder – much harder – to keep the interest of the consumer.
The barriers to entry will be lower, but so will be the barriers to exit.
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About Timothy O'Neil-Dunne
All other Tnodes please forgive me when I say, this is, without question, the best article I’ve read on Tnooz.
I disagree with one of TOD’s predictions though, the barriers to entry will also be higher because “real” innovation and data expertise will be at a premium. Trying to make marginal improvements on “legacy” business models is futile.
The days of copycat intermediaries will be over, so too will business models that don’t focus on or understand big data.
It will soon turn into a game for professionals only, all others need not apply.
Well done TOD, you should take a bow.
John – thanks for the kudos. Bow duly taken (in the back with my fingers crossed).
What is interesting is the problem you highlight. I am optimistic that the right amount of expertise can ignite good ideas. There is an obligation from some of us old hacks to give back something to this business. I am very hopeful that people can and will do that. That we need a degree of professionalism is without question.
Innovation cannot be taught. It can however be harnessed and focused. And that is a great challenge to have. I for one – am going to keep pushing to see that our business has the best possible mix of the necessary components for success.
Every few years we get an opportunity to move the needle. I believe that we are at one of those points in time. With Google in our midst – we have to up the game considerably. Big Data will enable a lot of the compromises that have been made to be swept aside.
And yes – I agree – copycats and marginals need not apply.
Real innovation, real advance, real customer focus and low cost will open up vistas of opportunity.
Cheers!
@john – are you sure the best ever?
@Kevin – what can I say, my experience is limited.
Hope it doesn’t hurt your bottom line too much when TOD wants to re-negotiate his pay pack.
Truth be told, all Tnodes are exceptional, Tim’s post just happened to resonate with my limited perspective.
Keep up the great work Tnooz!
@John – we love them all, too.
Maybe not the best article ever on Tnooz… but right up there. Some great points made here.
There is a lot of innovation out there that doesn’t get much attention because it’s not ‘sexy’. Managing complex data on the back end just doesn’t have the same sizzle as a cool new search UI, but it’s where there is much work to be done.
I also think this is a good article – a nice blend of Timothy’s super technology background and big picture (though a little crazy sometimes, eh, Timothy?) capabilities.
Anyway, I’m sure I will invite some snickering, but several of these points are pertinent to everyone’s favorite polarizing issues – Groupon and LivingSocial.
Looking beyond the daily deal model itself, and granted it could be a long time to get to the “beyond” considering their immediate focus and implementation constraints, these companies are gathering incredible amounts of data on purchasing preferences, product interests, behaviors, etc.
Enough to get to one’s implicit needs to complement explicit interests more effectively than any OTA, single supplier, or perhaps even Google in many ways (and I’d be interested to understand why Groupon is sharing that info with Expedia as well).
May be a stretch to connect the dots to traditional travel products now rather than the peripheral deals we’re seeing, but there are some people behind the scenes at those companies that helped build the incredible data and targeting capabilities at Amazon, etc.
Not saying they’re interested or it will happen, but in thinking about non-traditional players with the ability to create some changes as Timothy outlined, they’re interesting to think about.
Argue away…
and to feed the fascinating discussions on whether Groupon and others like it are viable enough to even capture the potential in a sustainable, long-term manner, here is a great article and debate on it…
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/08/groupon_doomed_by_too_much_of.html
enjoy…
#4 makes a very good point
Cloud is and will continue to have a profound impact on the industry allowing for more effective and efficient management processes. One website such as http://hotelogix.com is using a cloud based hotel solution for property managers.
In regards to the Groupon discussion, I believe that Groupon should have sold to
Google when it had the chance. The market space is becoming too competitive and deals are starting to become more centralized around the brand themselves. One such website doing this is http://brandbuddee.com whom I believe will be crowdsourcing influencers for WOM marketing and rewarding them with exclusive groupon like rewards